A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
