Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
